CMHC's July mid-year housing outlook gives Canada a city-level split rather than a single national story. Vancouver faces weaker condominium apartment starts and elevated rental vacancy, while Toronto's resale inventory and completed unsold homes remain the clearest pressure point for ownership buyers.

Vancouver Presales Are The Bottleneck

CMHC's regional outlook warned that weak condominium presales make new apartment projects difficult to advance. That leaves Metro Vancouver with fewer starts even though rental vacancies are expected to remain elevated as earlier supply finishes.

Toronto Has More Resale Choice

The Greater Toronto Area outlook points to available resale inventory comfortably meeting demand in 2026. Buyers have more room to negotiate than during tighter cycles, especially where completed new homes have not yet cleared.

Rental Markets Are Easing Unevenly

Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal are seeing more balanced rental conditions, but the relief is strongest in newer, higher-priced buildings. Lower-cost family rentals remain much tighter because that supply is harder to replace.

Outlook

Canada's next local signal is whether developers delay more condo starts or convert sites to rental. Tenants can seek concessions in premium buildings, while buyers should read city forecasts before treating national price declines as uniform.

Canada Deal Checks

For Canada, the practical check is whether this local signal is visible in signed contracts, bank approvals, lease negotiations, registered transfers or completed works. Buyers should compare CMHC, Vancouver condos, Toronto resale with recent transaction evidence, title documents, service charges, building condition and realistic exit demand before treating the latest news as a price guarantee.

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