Canada’s newest housing outlook is less about a national rebound and more about city vacancy. CMHC’s July 22 mid-year update says higher vacancy in Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal is expected to slow average rent growth, especially asking rents.

Big-City Rentals Are Losing Automatic Pricing Power

Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal landlords still operate in expensive markets, but vacancy changes the negotiation. Tenants comparing newer condo rentals, older purpose-built apartments and suburban stock have more leverage when supply sits longer.

Ownership Recovery Is Gradual

CMHC expects sales to recover only gradually through 2028 and remain below the last decade’s levels. That matters for sellers in the Greater Toronto Area and Greater Vancouver, where price cuts have not yet brought enough buyers back into the market.

Prairie Markets Are Different

The update separates stronger Prairie demand from softer large-metro rental pressure. Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg can still show firmer local rent conditions even if Canada’s largest markets cool at the margin.

Outlook

Canada’s fall market should be read by metro, not by a single national average. Owners in Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal need to watch vacancy and concessions, while buyers should wait for clear absorption before assuming prices have bottomed.

Local Watchpoint

The next rental signal is concessions. If Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal landlords begin offering free months or lower asking rents while official vacancy rises, the market will soften faster than annual averages imply. Buyers should also watch whether condo investor listings add to resale supply.

Read more local updates at Canada Housing Market.